I would hope so...
I would be more worried about Ohio, Florida etc...
Obama isn't likely to get anything below the Mason-Dixon line...so he had better hold the Midwest, and make some kind of progress in the west...
In any case it's gonna be another squeaker...with McCain having a slight advantage right now...
Disagree.
Obama isn't likely to get anything below the Mason-Dixon line...
For the first time in a generation, Republicans will have to put work in to win parts of the south they've taken for granted for a long, long time.
This is going to be a sweet election. I'm not concerned about McCain.
He is way behind in the polls here in Virginia and in Florida...probably his only real pick up opportunities...
KY, LA, AR, MS, AL, SC, NC, TN are all going to be easy McCain victories...
I've got no clue on which ones he will take, but VA, NC, and MS are possibilities. Once half of our party acknowledges our nominee, we'll be able to start taking realistic appraisals of our chances across the country.
I admire your faith...but realistically...which is how this needs to be viewed, Obama's chances down here are slim to none...
Regardless of his chances, part of the 50-state strategy means contesting every state, so the election doesn't hinge on Florida and Ohio over and over again. We don't need to sweep the South to win in November. We just need 270.
For winning a state? Sure. Though I think VA and NC are going to be in play, it's difficult envisioning Obama taking AL or GA.
But what he will do is increase African-American turnout to previously unseen points - which might not affect a winner-take-all state, but may affect winner-take-all Congressional districts. That means the RNCC has to play defense in a lot of places they didn't have to before - increasing the likelihood of our retaining or increasing our majority in the House.
Also, it may force McCain and other Republicans to spend time in places like VA, NC, SC, etc. rather than in MI, OH, FL, etc. if Obama can run competitively in those southern states.
Why?
Realistically VA and FL were the only two states where Obama might have had a shot...
The last poll I saw had him losing VA by a wide margin..and the same in Florida...
Bluntly, Obama cannot get enough African American support down here to overcome his lack of appeal to working class whites...
And the Republicans put up the perfect candidate to keep him from getting them...
Combine that with McCain's appeal in states like New Hampshire, West Virgina etc....it's gonna be a very tough row to hoe for Obama
is beginning to sound like concern trolling. You've made up your mind that Obama doesn't have a chance in the South, and almost every post continues to tout McCain as a formiddable opponent. Add to that the whinging about "working class whites", and it's pretty clear you're going to keep singing the same song, regardless of what the results on the ground show.
Not taking the bait.
Then don't respond...
See how easy that is....
you've got enough to worry about with Obama, what with McCain being the "perfect candidate" :^)
Gosh...guess you did take the bait after all...
Playing with trolls is half of why I visit MyDD anyway.
Must be killer knowing Obama's going to be the nominee.
Disappointing...yes...
http://www.pollster.com/08-VA-Pres-GE-Mv O.php
Virginia is competitive. With the combined forces of Mark Warner, Webb, and Kaine, VA is a prime pick-up opportunity. As was pointed out, even a loss in VA, if it means the GOP is spending money defending a "safe" state, opens up other poaching opportunities.
The south is (and will be for the foreseeable future) GOP country. The only state that changes with Clinton on the ticket is Arkansas--but she easily loses in VA to McCain in that scenario.
Rasmussen has him within 3pts in VA, sounds like the MOE to me. Add maybe Senator Webb into the ticket and its in play.
The trick is to get the GOP to fight for every state. After the special elections so far they can take nothing for granted anymore. With Hillary all we will get is the same old 50 + 1 strategy. New thinking for a new electorate, and a new campaign.
Webb isn't as popular here as he should be...unfortunately...
The most recent Rasmussen poll (5/8) shows him down by 3.
